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MODERN APPROACHES TO ASSESSMENT OF CUSTOMS RISKS IN FOREIGN ECONOMIC OPERATIONS
27.02.2026 00:23
[2. Економічні науки]
Автор: Iryna Dalinchun, student of (first) bachelor's degree, State Tax University, Irpin
Assessment of customs risks in foreign economic operations is based on risk identification, analysis and assessment. Key approaches include the use of risk management systems at different levels (strategic, tactical, operational) to determine the forms and scope of customs control, as well as the analysis of resources and expected results. In foreign economic operations, customs risk assessment is a systematic process of identifying, analyzing and minimizing the likelihood and consequences of violations of customs legislation. This process uses various approaches that can be classified as quantitative, qualitative and combined. In their internal content, qualitative approaches are based on expert experience and logical methods that do not involve the use of complex mathematical calculations. These include: the method of expert assessments, the method of "scenarios", the method of checklists (checklists). Each of them has a complex internal essence, its own specifics and features of application [1]. Therefore, we propose to reveal their internal content more thoroughly. Thus, the method of expert assessments consists in involving specialists who have significant experience in customs affairs to assess potential risks. Its advantages are high efficiency in identifying non-obvious threats that are difficult to detect using formalized algorithms, and the negative side is the subjectivity of assessments and a high level of direct dependence on the qualifications of experts. In turn, the method of "scenarios" consists in developing possible scenarios for the development of a foreign economic operation to identify potential risks at each stage. Its advantages include the fact that it can be used to identify relationships between different risks and assess the possible consequences of their implementation. In turn, its significant disadvantages are the large time required for application and the difficulty in predicting all possible scenarios. The last of the group of qualitative approaches - the checklist method - is the use of pre-prepared lists of typical risks to assess a specific operation. Its advantages include ease of use, speed of analysis. At the same time, its negative aspects are the inability to identify new or atypical risks.
As for the quantitative approaches used in assessing customs risks in foreign economic operations, they involve the use of mathematical and statistical methods for an objective assessment of the risk level. These include such methods as static, simulation modeling and the method of kinetic values [2]. As in the previous methodological group, each of them has its own complex internal essence, advantages and disadvantages. Let's analyze them in detail. So, the statistical method is the use of statistical data on past violations and identified risks to predict future events. Its strengths include objectivity, accuracy, the ability to identify patterns and trends. The disadvantages of this method are that it requires a large amount of reliable statistical data, does not always take into account the unique aspects of a new operation. As for the simulation modeling method, its essence is to create mathematical models that simulate the process of implementing a foreign economic operation to assess the impact of various risk factors. The advantages of this method include that it allows you to analyze complex relationships and assess the consequences of risk realization under different conditions. At the same time, the weaknesses are the high complexity of modeling, significant computing resources.
The last method from the group of quantitative approaches - the critical values method - consists in determining the critical values of indicators, the excess of which indicates the presence of increased risk. Its advantages are the clarity and simplicity of the assessment criteria, and the disadvantages are the difficulty of determining adequate critical values for all types of risks. As practice shows, the use of qualitative or quantitative approaches alone is currently ineffective, and therefore it is proposed to use combined approaches to assess the risks of the studied area. These include: the matrix method, the risk management system of customs authorities, the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence. We propose to focus on each of them in more detail. Thus, the matrix method consists in assessing risks according to two main parameters: the probability of occurrence and possible consequences. The results are entered into a matrix, which allows you to visualize risks and determine priority areas for minimization. Its advantages are clarity, the ability to compare different risks. The disadvantages of this method include the difficulty of determining the exact values of probability and consequences [3].
In turn, the customs risk management system combines various risk assessment methods, including data analysis, automated profiling, the use of intelligence and post-customs audit. Its main advantages are that it allows customs authorities to focus control on the most risky operations, thereby accelerating clearance for bona fide entities. Among the disadvantages, we note that its implementation and use require significant investments in technology and personnel training. The last method - the method of applying machine learning and artificial intelligence - consists in using machine learning algorithms for automatic analysis of large data sets (declarations, manifests) in order to identify atypical operations and predict risks. Its advantages are high speed and accuracy of analysis, the ability to detect complex patterns and hidden threats. At the same time, among the disadvantages it is worth noting the need for large volumes of high-quality data for training models, the risk of a "black box" (the complexity of explaining decisions made by AI). As we can see, there is currently a wide range of approaches to identifying and assessing customs risks in foreign trade, and the choice of each of them for practical application depends on the resources of the user and the task set when carrying out the analysis.
List of sources used:
1. Boldovska K. P. Osoblyvosti ta skladovi oblikovoho zabezpechennia mizhnarodnykh operatsii subiektiv hospodariuvannia. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo. 2022. Vyp. 35. URL: https://economyandsociety.in.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/1100 (data zvernennia: 17.02.2026).
2. Voskresenska T. I., Viniarskyi B. I. Formuvannia oblikovo-analitychnoho zabezpechennia zovnishnoekonomichnoi diialnosti pidpryiemstv v rozrizi yii vydiv. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo. 2024. Vyp. 59. URL: https://economyandsociety.
in.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/3532 (data zvernennia: 17.02.2026).
3. Hurskyi, Yu.Ia. Ekonomichne otsiniuvannia instrumentiv ekonomichnoho zakhystu pidpryiemstv v umovakh mizhnarodnoi diialnosti. Visnyk Natsionalnoho universytetu «Lvivska politekhnika». Seriia: «Problemy ekonomiky ta upravlinnia», Vyp. 8, № 1, s. 11-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.23939/semi2024.01.011 (data zvernennia: 17.02.2026).
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